We may be lucky in that Israel may not want to go along with such a crazy plan and commit suicide:

“Livni behind closed doors: Iranian nuclear arms pose little threat to Israel”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/916777.html

Also it seems that Ahmadinejad is the main excuse the neocon’s use to want an attack on Iran, but even that may no longer work:

“Iran reformists speak out, Rice defends atom moves”
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL2613131020071026

Justin, You are right to point out there is no place for comfort.
Wars happen when each side miscalculates their own power vs the enemy.
You can’t get into the minds of the war-mongers but here is what they may have convinced themselves:
1. Overestimate effectiveness of your own weapon systems, (easy to do when you hear arms salesmen pitching you most days in the week).
2. Underestimate the enemy.
3. Do they really care if Israel becomes uninhabitable? If they feel that the last chance is now to grab the oil resources of the world, and cow the muslim world, maybe they will go ahead and try anyway, no matter the risk to Israel. (Last year they forced Israel to fight in Lebonon when it didn’t seem prepared).
4. Gamble that Putin will back down when push comes to shove.
On the other side:
1. Iran has seen what happened to Iraq and will fight to the end because the alternative is annihilation anyway.
2. The Iranians seem convinced that their armed forces are pretty effective too, and don’t have long supply line issues like the U.S.
3. They may theorize that a 100% disruption in oil supplies would limit the length of time the world will let the U.S continue the assault.
4. They may be convinced that it cannot go nuclear.
5. They may feel they have the ability to destroy most of the airfields the U.S. is counting on to make U.S. air superiority moot
6. They may feel they can make survival of U.S forces in Iraq and Afghanistan so hard that a rational U.S. strategist would not want to risk the exposed troops.
7. If the war really escalates Syria may join, there may be coups in Egypt, S. Arabia and Pakistan with hostile regimes taking over and this may result in the complete exit of the U.S. from the middle east.
So I don’t know what kind of war games Cheney is playing but this one is so complex that most rational people would not try.
But then with several Heart attacks and strong medications keeping you alive one’s capacity to think things trough declines, one gets grumpy and looks for simple solutions that the diseased dying brain can still comprehend.

Effect of heart disease on mental function:
http://www.clevelandclinic.org/health/health-info/docs/3000/3046.asp?index=10731

Shouldn’t such people not be allowed to hold public office.
Diabetics are not allowed to join most armies.

The recent rise in the price of oil suggests that people who make a living weighing the risk on these kinds of things think war is a very real possibility.

IMO, I can’t see it happening because our domestic politics won’t allow it. And I don’t necessarily mean the resulting imminent destruction of the Republican Party (which I think is already assured to a certain degree), nor am I counting on Congress to fulfill its mandate for peace.

What I am counting on is the power elites realizing that the sh*t could really hit the fan in this county if we invade. When the dissatisfaction and anger that people on average have with this administration collides with the newly expanded executive branch powers you could see a scenario unfolding which results in a breakdown of civil authority. When enough people don’t believe that their government’s actions are legitimate, opposition becomes possible and credible.  And by opposition, I don’t simply mean people shouting slogans and holding signs. I think the real possibility of this happening will put the brakes on any invasion of Iran.

But I admit - I could be wrong.

In this light, I think that when we look back at the Bush presidency, the scheming and conniving that is going on in the last two years of this administration will make the run up to the war with Iraq look like child’s play.

Still, I think the Neocrazies are going to lose this one.