Justin Raimondo

Ron Paul Rising

Posted by Justin Raimondo on October 26, 2007

They scoffed at Ron Paul’s poll numbers—six months before a single vote was cast. Now he’s at 7.4 percent [.pdf file] in the latest New Hampshire poll. He’s in fourth place, he’s got $5.3 million to spend, and the campaign will soon air the first Paul-for-President television ads. The state is swarming with young volunteers—Ron is the Eugene McCarthy of the Old Right. As I predicted, the Ron Paul Effect is being felt.

Marc Ambinder, over at The Atlantic , confesses:

“For the longest time, many journalists, myself included, did not take Ron Paul seriously. It wasn’t that his politics—a combination of libertarian constitutionalism and social conservatism—were unusual. It was, principally, that he was anti-war in a party where that view dare not express itself.”

Interesting phraseology, there: the antiwar sentiment is present, but closeted, so to speak: the view that dares not speak its name. Yet who and what is speaking in these primaries—GOP congressmen who whisper their disgust with the neocons’ war in the House cafeteria? Well, no. Yes, but you would think that a commentator opining on the race for the White House would know some basics about, say, New Hampshire politics, namely that independent voters can cast a ballot in the GOP primary, and the state is staunchly, overwhelmingly antiwar.

“Paul,” Ambinder announces, “is now emerging as a serious threat in New Hampshire, perhaps not to win it—although the winner may need only 25% or so—, but to influence the outcome in a way that reflects his worldview.” To what do we owe this Strange New Respect, aside from Ron’s rising poll numbers? That’s because of this morning’s respectful piece in the New York Times, which notes his big bank account, the launch of his publicity blitz, and his scheduled presence on Jay Leno’s show this coming Tuesday, and, in a sure sign that our Ron Paul moment has come, hauls out a Certified Expert to assess the campaign:

“‘It’s striking to me that he’s at 7 percent without running a single TV ad in New Hampshire,” [Dante J. Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire] said. ‘If he starts to attract significant support among independents, then he could start to hurt Giuliani or McCain.’”
I’m not sure which prospect pleases me more—Ron’s rise, or the fall of Giuliani and/or McCain. But that’s just me ...

UPDATE: I’m watching “McLaughlin Group,” and when it came time for the end-of-the-show predictions, Eleanor Clift averred that “Ron Paul will be the story coming out of New Hampshire.” The buzz gets louder ...


Comments

heavens to murgatroid even...what next?

I know that as one of his staunch supporters in New York that his people are doing their part to get the word out and spending their own money to do it.  I purchased a couple of the lawn signs, some pins, and today ordered 100 of his slim-Jims, the name he gives to his shiny info flyers.  I am planning on ordering some more signs, bumper stickers, and more pins. It is pretty amazing what he has accomplished so far with the media blackout that is surrounding him.  No one in the msm wants to break the story of Ron Paul until they are forced to do so.  I think that the only reeason that the smear machine hasn’t gone into attack mode yet is that it would necesitate acknowledging him first.

that was crazy when elenour clift said that.  she must be the first liberal to do so.  Ron is kind of the GAO candidate.  no hype just the miserable facts.  it must be very disorienting for peole like wonkette who are waiting fore him to have an affair or something

“...people like wonkette who are waiting for him to have an affair or something.”

New Hampshire is fertile soil for our Uprising and you will know the One Party system is worried once the smear pieces start.

Starting in January ‘08 expect to learn that a Ron Paul Presidency would result; in mass starvation of the poor, the widespread practice of sending the elderly off to die in ice-flows and the triumph of “Islamofascism” around the world. Such is modern political discourse .

Posted by Kevin on Oct 27, 2007.

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I appreciate what Ron Paul is trying to do, and God Bless all his supporters who are working so hard on his behalf. But 7.4% in New Hampshire is hardly significant, and as New Hampshire has a strong independent streak…

The rule is don’t run if you can’t get at least 15%, because anything below that is just putting you into the fringe category. The Republican Party oews it’s support to the “I’ve got mine, screw everyone else” attitude, the fiancial support of the CEO classes & Wall Street bankers, and appeals to the resentments of white working class voters fed up with the “diversity” and “multiculuralism” of the globalization economy.

Justin, you’re a great journalist, a tremendous intellectaul force, but you’re dreaming when it comes to your theory of an “Old Right” emergence, and a libertarian surge that doesnt’ buy into the Alan Greenspan version of Government on belhalf of the Plutocracy.

7.2% just ain’t significant, and Paul’s campaign will just provide proof to the pundits that his anti-war, anti-big government message is just another lunatic fringe candidacy like Nader on the Left.

That being said, I’m glad Paul is out there, because of the thrill I get when he contradicts the Republican “me-too” candidates in the ebatess. But it’s a futile effort, and in the end will not be worth the thrill becassue of what it will do to the anti-war cause.

So what is “Joe Populist” afraid of, that a good but not overwhelming showing of Ron Paul in NH will do to the antiwar movement?
Ron Paul’s candidacy is giving the antiwar movement credibility, since he is the only candidate with solid common sense reasons to be against the war. Who does Joe prefer? Kucinic with his semi-communist views?
GOP Americans stand for fiscal and social conservatism, and a war is always the fiscally most irresponsible course of action a government can take. On the social mores that mainstream America holds dear, Ron Paul clearly stands out among the moral midgets in the field. And one can’t assign some of his ideas about taxation and monetary policy to the “fringe”, just because a majority of Americans have become addicted to the brain damaging cool-aid of government hand-outs and the abdication of personal responsibility.
It is no accident that the main street media, which is so protective of - and interested in – big government, is trying to ignore him.
I think we all will be pleasantly surprised by the results of the New Hampshire primary. And maybe then Joe Populist will become a supporter of this “fringe” candidate.

“mass starvation of the poor, the widespread practice of sending the elderly off to die in ice-flows and the triumph of “Islamofascism” around the world. “ they don’t have to wait for ron paul, that’s what we have now!

Normally I agree that 7.5% is not enough, but the trend is your friend..  But this year is different.  I have never seen such a week crop of candiates, each with glaring defects.

They are all supporting the war and effectively leaning into the punch that will be the 2008 elections.

Posted by daveg on Oct 27, 2007.

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Dr.Ron Paul…
A true voice calling from the wilderness.
“Remember the liberty our forefathers strived
for and won? It’s ours if we want it.”
Ron Paul is a Prophet and we are watching history
being made.
This election will be the most profound turning
point in American history since the revolution
of ‘76.
The chips are all in. Either we keep our freedom
or we are going to lose it forever.
Ron Paul for President!

Kevin wrote :"New Hampshire is fertile soil for our Uprising and you will know the One Party system is worried once the smear pieces start.”

Very astute and correct. Remember, however, that persecution will flame this fire and “what will (we) but that it be enkindled.” It was easier to smear Buchanan because he fought back and in ways they could understand and at a time when the public was not totally fed up with politicians. But Ron Paul is a little different man coming at a little different time, certainly fear will play into their attacks and they will change shape and color a thousand times, use shock and awe and certainly appeal to the electorates greed. But once the persecution begins, we should not mistake the hour of the night, it may be closer to morning than we suspect.

Posted by bob on Oct 27, 2007.

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... and in spite of global MSM he’s been noticed everywhere (http://www.whowouldtheworldelect.com).

Bob,
“It was easier to smear Buchanan because he fought back and in ways they could understand and at a time when the public was not totally fed up with politicians.”

True, Buchanan played into the stereotype right after his win in New Hampshire by going to Arizona, donning a cowboy hat and hoisting a rifle over his hear. He became a caricature.

He should have played against type and gone to a Soup Kitchen to boost the “little platoons” or to a factory and addressed those feeling the pain of “globalization”.

I agree though, Ron Paul should be harder to slime in terms of his persona, hard to label policy positions, and public disgust with the political class significantly more pronounced.

Posted by Kevin on Oct 28, 2007.

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“I think we all will be pleasantly surprised by the results of the New Hampshire primary. And maybe then Joe Populist will become a supporter of this “fringe” candidate.”

As a NH Citizen, I’ll second the above.  Please donate to the Ron Paul campaign.  Thanks.

BillWNH sed: “And maybe then Joe Populist will become a supporter of this “fringe” candidate.”

Lately, all the candidates I support seem to be “fringe” candidates.....I support RP’s effort, but it’s a vicarious thrill of watching him injectt a contradiction on the war to the Republican debates. Sort of like farting in an tea party of Old Ladies. <chuckle>

I hope he rises to the 15%, but if he doesn’t his campaign will be a failure in the sense that the pundits will be able to use that as evidence that the “precitioius pullout” position is insignificant.

Werner sed: “So what is “Joe Populist” afraid of, that a good but not overwhelming showing of Ron Paul in NH will do to the antiwar movement?

Obviously if Ron Paul polls 7.5%, then his effort will prove in teh minds of the public that support for the “precipitious withdrawal” option is insignifcant.

The problem is the general public is ambivalent about Iraw--they don’t want to be stuck there forever, but they’ve been convinced of the “We Broke it--We’ve bought” argument...also the “conservative” base is incredibly triangulated on the issues, they like the Republican tax cuts, and others are concerned over the ptotential of the advancement of social liberalism under an Obama/Hillary win, or that teh Democrats are so dominated by racial/ethnic/religious “Identityu Politics” thathat the Democrats will be worse then Bush2 on encouraging unrestrained immigration.

The Democrats are equally triangulated, and the anti-war majority in the at party will come home to whoever the Democrats nominate on election day because of their committment to the social issues.

The triangulation of course, serves the interests of the real rulers of American---the Wall STreet Bankers and the CEO classes, and the Israeli Lobby.

“Starting in January ‘08 expect to learn that a Ron Paul Presidency would result; in mass starvation of the poor, the widespread practice of sending the elderly off to die in ice-flows and the triumph of “Islamofascism” around the world. Such is modern political discourse .”

I hate to break it to you, Kevin, but that’s already happening.  I don’t know if non-members can access it, but you should check out http://forums.somethingawful.com/adlist.php

Since non-profit ads are only $8 for 30 days, the Barack Obama lunatic fringe has been purchasing the most outrageously libelous anti-Paul ads imaginable.  Last month, there were twice as many as there are now.

Warning: some of the ads definitely aren’t suitable for viewing at work or in front of children.

Posted by Jason on Oct 29, 2007.

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7.2% just ain’t significant, and Paul’s campaign will just provide proof to the pundits that his anti-war, anti-big government message is just another lunatic fringe candidacy like Nader on the Left.

There are a few errors here.

First, when it comes to polls, the exposure of Frank Luntz’s machinations ought make you more suspect of citing any poll as a reflection of actual sentiment.

Secondly, an impressive showing by Paul will cause a lot of folks to decide that maybe he can win and that’ll draw more potential voters into his camp.

The subtext of your complaints seems to be there is no chance so screw it.

I say that while there is a chance, there is a chance. Unless you predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall I don’t consider your personal opinions as a reliable predictor of future events or normative praxis for conservatism.

The Media would love for a real story to come out of New Hampster. It’d give them the opportunity to build him up (before trying to tear him down) so they can at least have some fun during the Primaries.

You can at least wait for his political death before writing his obituary, right?

There will be plenty of time for you to gloat and celebrate your pessimism and defeatism the establishment allows you as your sole personal property.

7.4% is big considering not one dime has been spent in NH to get his name out there.  Once people get to know Ron they usually agree with lots of what he has to say.  They may not agree with everything but they can all agree that he has principles and speaks truth to power.

Today the media blitz begins, with radio ads in 5 states, and 1.1 million dollars worth of TV time in NH.  Also tonight he is going to be on the Tonight Show.

I would say that Ron Paul is at 7.4% and about to climb rapidly!

Ron Paul will win for the most elementary of reasons: Nature abhors a vacume.  The GOP has been hollowed out and is now a total intellectual and moral vacume.  Only one man is running a campaigne, and it will continue to expand to the limit of the vacume.  So expect the “Paul support function” to rise exponentially!

The downside?  Well, it’s not primarily due to what people normally think of as charsima, as I suppose that in the generation of Jefferson, Adams, and Paine, Ron Paul would just have been a guy of average integrity and insight.

Ron Paul rising, indeed.  I am watching Leno right now waiting for Paul to come on.

Did you happen to watch the MSNBC Democratic Debate?  The best part was the pre and post debate coverage imo.  This was on the Ron Paul Forum:

http://img463.imageshack.us/img463/6467/demdebateee5.jpg

Priceless.

That Ron Paul guy, he’s catching on.

“mass starvation of the poor, the widespread practice of sending the elderly off to die in ice-flows” We already have that thanks to your brain-dead president. As far as “Islamofascism”, it doesn’t exist. If anything, we have a
“Zion-Christianofascism” “axis of evil” which is death and destruction through out the Islamic world.

Posted by Roman on Oct 31, 2007.

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On the eve of the Iowa straw poll in August, Ron Paul was projected to receive only 2% of the vote.  He actually received 9%.  And that was after Huckabee spent $150 a vote, and Romney spent $1000 a vote.  Given the disparity between ‘scientific’ polls and reality, if the primary was held today, Ron Paul would get at least 15% of the vote.  By the time the primary is held, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 30%.

Joe said,

“...the anti-war majority in the at party will come home to whoever the Democrats nominate on election day because of their committment to the social issues.”

I gues he meant the D’s will vote for the candidate they’re given because they’ll have no where else to go on the social issues.

I have a lot of sympathy for this argument. I cannot see how the health needs of the majority of people in this country can be addressed unless there is some kind of universal payer program, that is, where the government pays for the work done by the existing medical system instead of the balkanized insurance systemn we have now.

I am very supportive of Paul’s position on the war. I support many of his ideas that point us back to the Constitution. But, I cannot see but Democrats would find it difficult if not impossible to support him because it seems he wouyld eliminate federal involvement in the health care system. I can’t see how this would be counted as an improvement by most Democrats.

To sum up, if I’d vote for any Republican it would be for Paul because of his anti war view. But he would be a tough sell because he does not seem to be talking about how less government is going to get people health care and jobs.

If I was advising the paul campaign, I’d start talking to D’s and independents about how less could be more.

Structurally, which is primarily but not wholly constitutionally, impeaching Bush and Cheney before the end of their terms is much more central than the next presidential election, whoever wins.

And also the next election after that, and after that.

In fact, the inflated grandeur of the presidential office is a major part of the problem.

On this point, Kucinich and Paul, and a few others in national office, with everyone behind either of them or both, should be leading the charge.

“Who does Joe prefer? Kucinic with his semi-communist views?”

Maybe—NO president?! Maybe—politics is not the answer?!

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