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Entry: Don't Get Too Comfortable ... Link: http://www.takimag.com/blogs/article/dont_get_too_comfortable#7808 Post contents: Justin, You are right to point out there is no place for comfort. Wars happen when each side miscalculates their own power vs the enemy. You can't get into the minds of the war-mongers but here is what they may have convinced themselves: 1. Overestimate effectiveness of your own weapon systems, (easy to do when you hear arms salesmen pitching you most days in the week). 2. Underestimate the enemy. 3. Do they really care if Israel becomes uninhabitable? If they feel that the last chance is now to grab the oil resources of the world, and cow the muslim world, maybe they will go ahead and try anyway, no matter the risk to Israel. (Last year they forced Israel to fight in Lebonon when it didn't seem prepared). 4. Gamble that Putin will back down when push comes to shove. On the other side: 1. Iran has seen what happened to Iraq and will fight to the end because the alternative is annihilation anyway. 2. The Iranians seem convinced that their armed forces are pretty effective too, and don't have long supply line issues like the U.S. 3. They may theorize that a 100% disruption in oil supplies would limit the length of time the world will let the U.S continue the assault. 4. They may be convinced that it cannot go nuclear. 5. They may feel they have the ability to destroy most of the airfields the U.S. is counting on to make U.S. air superiority moot 6. They may feel they can make survival of U.S forces in Iraq and Afghanistan so hard that a rational U.S. strategist would not want to risk the exposed troops. 7. If the war really escalates Syria may join, there may be coups in Egypt, S. Arabia and Pakistan with hostile regimes taking over and this may result in the complete exit of the U.S. from the middle east. So I don't know what kind of war games Cheney is playing but this one is so complex that most rational people would not try. But then with several Heart attacks and strong medications keeping you alive one's capacity to think things trough declines, one gets grumpy and looks for simple solutions that the diseased dying brain can still comprehend. Sent at: 2008 07 08