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Entry: Regime Change Redux Link: http://www.takimag.com/site/article/regime_change_redux#7984 Post contents: I don't think Bush will attack Iran. The reason for this is that he doesn't want to lose in Iraq and Afghanistan. An attack on Iran would likely produce a request by the Iraqi gov't that we leave which would severely damage our diplomatic position. But, in addition, we would likely face an uprising by the Shiite militia and even some elements, at least, of the Iraqi Security Force. Our position in Iraq would become militarily untenable. Likewise, an attack on Iran could de-stabilize the govt of Pakistan. If the govt wasn't overthrown outright, it is still quite possible that it would cease to support our Afghan operations and that would also make our position there untenable. If Bush were going to attack Iran, he would have acted on the Iraq Study Group report that would have allowed us to get most of our troops out of Iraq or into safe havens like Kurdistan. No Russia-China alliance? Has no one here heard of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization? It includes Russia, China, Kazakhistan, and several smaller Caspian Sea states. Iran has observer status but it is generally agreed that Iran does not have full status only because they don't want to force confrontation with the West. We face the prospect of a Russian, Chinese, Iranian entente which is exactly what Brezshinski warned that we should seek to prevent way back in 1997. Sent at: 2008 05 16