The multiplayer game afoot over Iran has grown more tense and complex in recent weeks. The Israelis, who continue to publicize their threat to strike Iran’s nuclear program, have been pushing Russia to refrain from sales of S-300 antiaircraft missiles to Teheran. This matter was certainly high on the agenda of both Shimon Peres and Benjamin Netanyahu, who have both made rather impromptu visits to Moscow over the past month.
The high-level meetings may have dealt with the pirate adventure of the Arctic Sea, a Maltese-flagged ship that many in the media have speculated was carrying S-300 components bound for Iran and interdicted by the Israelis. A storm of leaks, assertions and misinformation has resulted from the mystery, with each side emitting multiple conflicting signals. The ship was likely hauling much more than lumber, due to the considerable assets Russia deployed to track and seize it off of Cape Verde. Regardless of what actually happened with the Arctic Sea, the incident showcased Tel-Aviv’s anxiety about the S-300 missile complex.
Were the Russians to supply the S-300 to Iran, the potential success of an Israeli air strike would be reduced considerably, and the Pentagon would have to re-examine its own plans as well. The Israelis have been pushing hard for Moscow to freeze any missile sale, but there are a number of factors that would have to be addressed for the Russians to cooperate.
The Kremlin is likely demanding that Israel adjust its behavior in the former Soviet space. The Israelis maintain security relationships with the Georgians, Ukrainians, and Azeris. Israeli intelligence activity in the Caucasus and Ukraine, along with weapons sales and specialized training, is not looked upon kindly in Moscow. From these republics Mossad not only runs operations against Russia, but also keeps tabs on the Iranians.
The appointment of a veteran Mossad officer to the ambassador’s post in Turkmenistan makes clear Tel Aviv’s priorities in the former Soviet Union. Reuven Dinel, expelled from Russia in 1996 for espionage, is widely expected to concentrate on Iran and monitor the Teheran-Moscow relationship. His appointment comes, perhaps also not incidentally, only four months after Russia announced that Kazakhstan would acquire the S-300 antiaircraft system.
It will take more, however, than just the Israelis scaling back their activity in Russia’s backyard for Moscow to rethink arming Iran. Putin and Medvedev point to a more comprehensive solution requiring US understanding on a Russian sphere of interests. No such appreciation of Russian concerns in Washington has been forthcoming.
As George Friedman observes, we could be approaching a moment of danger. The “crippling” gasoline sanctions Obama has promised Tel-Aviv in the event of Iranian non-compliance with Western demands can be short-circuited by the Russians and Chinese. Moscow and Beijing have no interest in assisting Washington on Iran.
At this point, seeing US possibilities exhausted, Netanyahu might gamble on carrying out a strike and expect the US to fall in line. Such an expectation is altogether warranted, given the amount of influence AIPAC & co. exercise openly or otherwise on the White House and Congress. Regardless of Obama’s personal preferences, there are plenty of people in his administration (such as Biden and Clinton) who would readily support an Israeli attack in the near future.
Another drive to pre-emptive war seems to be taking place before our eyes. It is apparently too much to expect that those who blindly press forward should have at least some slight notion of the disasters that await them beyond the threshold.
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Disaster Beckons
The multiplayer game afoot over Iran has grown more tense and complex in recent weeks. The Israelis, who continue to publicize their threat to strike Iran’s nuclear program, have been pushing … [Read More]
Posted by Mark Hackard on September 16, 2009
The Usual Suspects