Taki Magazine

Riots and Intrigue in Eurasia

by Mark Hackard on April 08, 2009

Springtime is the season for political discord in some former Soviet republics. Violent protests have rocked Moldova’s corrupt Communist government, while in Georgia opposition forces are hoping to put 100,000 demonstrators on the streets of Tbilisi tomorrow and call for the ouster of president Mikheil Saakashvili.

The always-watchful Stratfor seems to be on top of the situation. The company’s analysts give some helpful guidance on color revolutions:

“Color revolution” describes the wave of regime changes in the post-Soviet world (from Serbia to Kyrgyzstan) that were not instigated by a coherent opposition movement, but rather flowed from seemingly spontaneous outpourings of social angst involving students and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The best-known of these were Georgia’s nonviolent “Rose Revolution” in 2003 and Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution” in 2004.

However, the spontaneity of color revolutions frequently has been called into question. Western involvement — such as funding from Europe for rebelling student groups and NGOs or direct links to U.S. intelligence services — is often suspected, if not proved outright. In Russia (and most of the world, apart from the West), the Orange Revolution has been largely viewed as a Western-backed effort to subvert a key state on the Russian periphery — an event that in many ways has motivated the Kremlin’s recent moves to force Western powers out of Moscow’s traditional “sphere of influence.”

The demonstrations in Moldova haven’t as yet shown concrete evidence of foreign inspiration. Many protestors were seen waving Romanian and EU flags (a Russian news crew also saw a pirate flag). It is understandable that Romanian-speaking Moldovans would seek a closer political arrangement with Bucharest due to the rotten Communist government, so it remains to be seen whether various “Open Society”-type NGOs might have played a role in coordinating any action. If Western and Russian intelligence services haven’t already started trying to influence events in Kishinev, they probably are now.

Stratfor also reports that the Russian state may be funding various Georgian opposition parties for tomorrow’s protest action against that darling of the Open Society movement, Saakashvili. While Moscow has its reasons to want Saakashvili gone, Georgians have all the justifications they need for seeking his departure. The Georgian president last year recklessly led his country into war with Russia. He also seemed to think that Washington, with its foolish effort to extend NATO into the Caucasus, would actively reinforce his campaign against South Ossetia. The adventure resulted predictably in disaster, both for Saakashvili and the Georgian people.

In light of ongoing geopolitical duels and the effects of the financial crisis, it will probably be a dynamic summer across Europe.

• Print Article
• Email Article
• Email the Editor