Russell Seitz

May 21, 2008

If you think the American economy has its troubles, look at al Qaeda’s operations in Iraq.
One of the jihadist web sites monitored by Hudson Institute visiting scholar Nibras Kazimi features this graph,
authored by the pseudonymous ?Dir?a limen wehhed? [?A Shield for the Monotheist?], who posted his ?Brief Study on the Consequences of the Division [Among] the Groups on the Cause of Jihad in Iraq? on May 12 on one of al-Qaeda’s premier media outlets the Al-Ekhlaas website:

Kazimi notes :
The author tallies up and compares the numbers of operations claimed by each insurgent group under four categories: a year and half ago (November 2006), a year ago (May 2007), six months ago (November 2007) and now (May 2008). He demonstrated that while Al-Qaeda?s Islamic State of Iraq could claim 334 operations in Nov. 06 and 292 in May 07, their violent output dropped to 25 in Nov. 07 and 16 so far in May 08. Keep in mind that these assessments are based on Al-Qaeda’s own numbers.

The author also shows that similar steep drops were exhibited by other jihadist groups,”

Does this 94% falloff in al-Q’s praxis of terror in Iraq signal a general collapse—or attention focused elsewhere on both sides ? The buildup of US forces in Afganistan facing OBL’s presumed den in Pakistan[‘s tribal areas continues.