Not surprisingly, this correlation decayed somewhat in 2008, while remaining stronger than far more publicized factors, such as the “€œgender gap.”€ Remarkably, however, years married came back as powerful as ever in 2012. Romney carried 23 of the 24 states in which younger white women were most likely to be married, as measured back in 2002. Obama won 25 of the 26 lowest-ranked states.

Perhaps Romney’s persona as the epitome of the conservative lifestyle played a role in this 2012 pattern. While many voters admired Romney for his nearly spotless private life, others no doubt found him too perfect.

In contrast, Trump tends to appeal to Americans whose existences aren”€™t so buttoned-down as Romney’s, who have messy, combative lives. (But can a candidate appeal to whites who live loud while still retaining the indoor-voice whites?)

A lot of these folks don”€™t usually show up to vote. Trump’s best hope lies in motivating unreliable citizens to turn out. But can Trump count solely upon his air game because he doesn”€™t want to pay grasping political consultants for an expensive get-out-the-vote ground game (the way Romney was taken to the cleaners in 2012)?

Fourth, ethnocentrism. The stability seen in the presidential elections of 2000″€“2012 due to the predictability of identity politics existed largely because”€”while identity politics among the fringes of the population have been strongly encouraged”€”the core’s natural ethnocentrism had been channeled into a few respectable and futile outlets.

For example, it’s acceptable for white Christians to strongly back Likud’s identity politics for Israeli Jews. Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu receives rapturous support from Republican gentiles. But it is not at all reputable for them to look for their own Israeli-style American nationalist to stand up for their own interests.

This fear among elites, especially among Jewish elites, of Americans getting their own Israeli-style leadership has led Trump to be denounced as an American Hitler. But a more plausible analogy is that the wily entrepreneur has sniffed out an untapped niche in the market for an American Netanyahu.

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