May 08, 2018
The Israelis, Saudis and Beltway War Party want the deal trashed, because they want a U.S. clash with Iran. They are not afraid of war. Instead, they fear Trump will extricate us from the Middle East before we do our historic duty and effect regime change in Iran.
What is Israel’s motive? Israel fears that the Iranians, having contributed to Bashar Assad’s victory in Syria’s civil war, will stay on and establish bases and a weapons pipeline to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has launched scores of airstrikes into Syria to prevent this.
The problem for Bibi: While Trump sees no vital U.S. interest in Syria and has expressed his wish to get out when ISIS is demolished and scattered, Bibi has cast us in the lead role in taking down Iran in Syria.
Trump may want to stay out of the next phase of the Syrian civil war. Bibi is counting on the Americans to fight it.
But while Bibi may have a vital interest in driving Iran out of Syria, Iran is no threat to any vital interest of the United States.
Iran’s economy is in dreadful shape. Its youth have voted repeatedly against presidential candidates favored by the Ayatollah. There are regular constant demonstrations against the regime.
Time is not on the side of the Islamic Republic.
Fifty million Persians, leading a Shiite nation of Persians, Azeris, Baloch, Arabs and Kurds, are not going to control a vast Middle East of hundreds of millions of Arabs and Turks in an Islamic world where Shiites are outnumbered five times over by Sunnis.
For the United States, the strategic challenge of this century is not Iran, North Korea or Russia. If it is any nation, it is China.
Trump the dealmaker should find a way to keep the nuclear deal with Iran. We are far better off with it than without it.